Aqueduct Race 2

Maiden Special Weight

Prize Money: $106,990

PROBABILITY (6) raced on the speed last start and battled on well but found one better over 1609m at this track (Dirt). Top chance in a nice race for him. KAZ OIL CHANGER (2) was close to a maiden win before a 12 weeks break, finishing off with a placing over 1609m at this track (Dirt). Expect he has come on over the break. Nicely placed and expected to go well. ALZERO (5) is back from a spell of 11 weeks. Raced once last campaign and finished third over 1207m at this track (Dirt). Sure to make his presence felt. VOLATILE SITUATION (1) is resuming from a spell of 14 months and having his first run for the Todd Pletcher yard. Was in the placings when first-up from a spell last campaign at this track (Dirt) over 1207m.

Distance: 1308m
Track: slow
Weather: overcast
Surface: Dirt
Class: MDN

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Volatile Situation (1) 223x
Trainer: Todd Pletcher(USA)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Weight: 55.5kg
Prize Money: $58,374
Win / Place: 0% / 100%

4 yo Chestnut Gelding

Sire: VOLATILE (USA)

Dam: SUPPLEMENT (USA)

Dam's Sire: Sky Mesa

Rating

Stats

Career

3: 0-2-1

Distance

1: 0-1-0

Trk/Dst

1: 0-1-0

Track

3: 0-2-1

1st Up

1: 0-1-0

2nd Up

1: 0-1-0

3rd Up

1: 0-0-1

Metro

3: 0-2-1

Dirt

3: 0-2-1

Anti-Clockwise

3: 0-2-1

Jockey Stats

Trainer

W 0% P 0%

Distance

W 0% P 0%

Track

W 0% P 0%

Trainer/Track

W 0% P 0%

Trainer/Distance

W 0% P 0%

Gear Changes

steel shoes first time, surgical shoes.

Comments

Racing first-up today. Finished off last campaign third of 8 at this track December 15 2024 over 1408m, 2.75 len behind Fireballin with 54kg at $1.60. On debut second of 9 at this track October 26 2024 over 1207m, 8 len behind Kenny Be carrying 54kg at $5. Solid top-three proposition.

Expected Settling Position: Pace

Last Starts days since last start

Place	Date	Track	Distance	Class	Barrier	Jockey	Weight	Cond.	Race Time	Avg. Speed	Margin	800/400	SP	Days	Prize	Prize Won	Result
3rd of 8	15/12/24	Belmont At The Big A	1408m	MDN 2	5	K Carmouche	54kg	Fast	1:24.57	59.9 km/h	2.8L	2-3	$1.60f	22	$115,562	$13,867	1. Fireballin 2. Roofer 3. Volatile Situation
2nd of 12	23/11/24	Belmont At The Big A	1308m	MDN 2	12	K Carmouche	54kg	M	1:18.85	59.7 km/h	0.3L	2-2	$3.25f	28	$114,155	$22,831	1. Sir Kartrite 2. Volatile Situation 3. Skytown
2nd of 9	26/10/24	Belmont At The Big A	1207m	MDN 2	3	K Carmouche	54kg	Fast	1:10.29	61.8 km/h	8.5L	4-2	$5.00	-	$108,382	$21,676	1. Kenny Be 2. Volatile Situation 3. Sir Kartrite

Kaz Oil Changer (2) 222x853x
Trainer: Dimitrios Synnefias()
Jockey: Jaime Rodriguez
Weight: 55.5kg
Prize Money: $100,630
Win / Place: 0% / 66%

4 yo Dark Bay/Brown Gelding

Sire: NAME CHANGER (USA)

Dam: OIL PAINTING (USA)

Dam's Sire: Distorted Humor

Rating

Stats

Career

6: 0-3-1

Distance

1: 0-0-0

Trk/Dst

1: 0-0-0

Track

3: 0-1-1

1st Up

2: 0-1-0

2nd Up

2: 0-1-0

3rd Up

2: 0-1-1

Metro

6: 0-3-1

Turf

1: 0-0-0

Dirt

5: 0-3-1

Fast

1: 0-0-0

Anti-Clockwise

6: 0-3-1

Jockey Stats

Trainer

W 0% P 0%

Distance

W 0% P 0%

Track

W 0% P 0%

Trainer/Track

W 0% P 0%

Trainer/Distance

W 0% P 0%

Distance Range Last 6 months

1308m - 1609m

Comments

Is first-up after a break of 12 weeks and has been in the money when fresh before. Finished off last preparation third of 8 at this track December 5 over 1609m, 7 len behind Twohonestmischief with 55kg at $24.18. Previously first up; eighth of 10 at Aqueduct Turf October 25 over 1609m, 15 len behind Oat Coutour carrying 54.5kg at $9.46. Expect a forward showing.

Expected Settling Position: Off Midfield

Last Starts days since last start

Place	Date	Track	Distance	Class	Barrier	Jockey	Weight	Cond.	Race Time	Avg. Speed	Margin	800/400	SP	Days	Prize	Prize Won	Result
3rd of 8	5/12/25	Belmont At The Big A	1609m	MDN 3U	2	Silvestre Gonzalez	55kg	Fast	1:37.14	59.6 km/h	7.6L	1-3	$24	21	$122,511	$14,701	1. Twohonestmischief 2. Probability 3. Kaz Oil Changer
5th of 7	14/11/25	Belmont At The Big A	1308m	MDN 3U	1	Dylan Davis	54.5kg	Fast	1:16.62	61.5 km/h	9.1L	7-6	$9.67	20	$122,137	$4,885	1. Merica's Back 2. Twohonestmischief 3. Poppy's Ticket
8th of 10	25/10/25	Belmont At The Big A	1609m	MDN 3U	10	Manuel Franco	54.5kg	FM	1:36.72	59.9 km/h	15.3L	8-8	$9.46	71	$121,766	$731	1. Oat Coutour 2. Askingforafriend 3. Inspeightofcharlie
71 Day Spell
2nd of 8	15/8/25	Saratoga	1609m	MDN 3U	8	I Ortiz Jr	53.5kg	Fast	1:38.22	59.0 km/h	9.3L	4-3	$5.10	30	$139,535	$27,907	1. Undisputed 2. Kaz Oil Changer 3. Twohonestmischief
2nd of 6	16/7/25	Saratoga	1811m	MDN 3U	2	I Ortiz Jr	53.5kg	Fast	1:51.64	58.4 km/h	10.5L	2-2	$5.70	33	$137,615	$27,523	1. Iron Dome 2. Kaz Oil Changer 3. Undisputed
33 Day Freshen-Up
2nd of 6	13/6/25	Belmont At The Big A	1811m	MDN 3U	5	Jose Antonio Gomez	53.5kg	Fast	1:52.14	58.1 km/h	3.3L	4-2	$9.20	-	$124,417	$24,883	1. Toga Dan 2. Kaz Oil Changer 3. Solo Dancing

Executive Move (3) 5x3222x
Trainer: Charlton Baker()
Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr.
Weight: 55.5kg
Prize Money: $92,621
Win / Place: 0% / 80%

5 yo Bay Gelding

Sire: THE FACTOR (USA)

Dam: TWO SUSANS (USA)

Dam's Sire: Purge

Rating

Stats

Career

5: 0-3-1

Track

3: 0-2-0

1st Up

2: 0-0-1

2nd Up

1: 0-1-0

3rd Up

1: 0-1-0

4th Up

1: 0-1-0

Metro

5: 0-3-1

Dirt

5: 0-3-1

Anti-Clockwise

5: 0-3-1

Jockey Stats

Trainer

W 0% P 0%

Distance

W 0% P 0%

Track

W 0% P 0%

Trainer/Track

W 0% P 0%

Trainer/Distance

W 0% P 0%

Comments

Gelding back from a spell of 16 months. Has placed previously first up from a break. Finished off last campaign second in a small field at this track November 2 2024 over 1408m, 6 len behind Clancy Fancy carrying 54.5kg at $2. When resuming last campaign third of 7 at Saratoga July 27 2024 over 1408m, 3 len behind Noonzio carrying 54kg at $17.70. Must be included.

Expected Settling Position: Off Pace

Last Starts days since last start

Place	Date	Track	Distance	Class	Barrier	Jockey	Weight	Cond.	Race Time	Avg. Speed	Margin	800/400	SP	Days	Prize	Prize Won	Result
2nd of 6	2/11/24	Belmont At The Big A	1408m	MDN 3U	1	K Carmouche	54.5kg	Fast	1:24.24	60.2 km/h	6.0L	3-2	$2.00f	29	$114,155	$22,831	1. Clancy Fancy 2. Executive Move 3. Iron Man Ira
2nd of 5	4/10/24	Belmont At The Big A	1609m	MDN 3U	3	Joel Rosario	54.5kg	Fast	1:37.24	59.6 km/h	0.1L	2-3	$2.35f	37	$108,382	$21,676	1. Sorority Prank 2. Executive Move 3. Accidental Bid
37 Day Freshen-Up
2nd of 8	28/8/24	Saratoga	1609m	MDN 3U	7	Manuel Franco	53.5kg	Fast	1:38.96	58.5 km/h	7.0L	3-2	$4.55	32	$138,249	$27,650	1. Get A Job 2. Executive Move 3. Stormy's Dreaming
32 Day Freshen-Up
3rd of 7	27/7/24	Saratoga	1408m	MDN 3U	2	Jaime A Torres	54kg	Fast	1:26.26	58.8 km/h	3.0L	5-3	$18	211	$135,338	$16,241	1. Noonzio 2. Sorority Prank 3. Executive Move
211 Day Spell
5th of 11	29/12/23	Belmont At The Big A	1207m	MDN 2	11	A S Worrie	54kg	M	1:11.52	60.8 km/h	8.0L	4-6	$30	-	$105,581	$4,223	1. Doc Sullivan 2. Sorority Prank 3. Allied Attack

Alzero (4) 66x246x3x
Trainer: Kevin Bond(USA)
Jockey: Christopher Elliott
Weight: 55.5kg
Prize Money: $39,944
Win / Place: 0% / 33%

4 yo Bay Gelding

Sire: GOLDENCENTS (USA)

Dam: BEE NOTEWORTHY (USA)

Dam's Sire: Read The Footnotes

Rating

Stats

Career

6: 0-1-1

Distance

1: 0-0-0

Trk/Dst

1: 0-0-0

Track

4: 0-1-1

1st Up

3: 0-1-1

2nd Up

2: 0-0-0

3rd Up

1: 0-0-0

Metro

6: 0-1-1

Dirt

6: 0-1-1

Anti-Clockwise

6: 0-1-1

Jockey Stats

Horse

1: 0-0-1

Trainer

W 0% P 0%

Distance

W 0% P 0%

Track

W 0% P 0%

Trainer/Track

W 0% P 0%

Trainer/Distance

W 0% P 0%

Distance Range Last 6 months

1207m

Comments

Back from a spell. Only had one start last preparation 3rd in a small field at this track on December 12 over 1207m, 0.6 len behind Liberty Rising with 55.5kg at $4.74. When resuming last campaign 2nd of 10 at this track on June 14 over 1207m, 0.5 len behind Cousin Ed carrying 53.5kg at $5.20. Expected to prove hard to beat.

Expected Settling Position: Midfield

Last Starts days since last start

Place	Date	Track	Distance	Class	Barrier	Jockey	Weight	Cond.	Race Time	Avg. Speed	Margin	800/400	SP	Days	Prize	Prize Won	Result
3rd of 6	12/12/25	Belmont At The Big A	1207m	MDN 3U	2	Christopher Elliott	55.5kg	Fast	1:14.17	58.6 km/h	0.6L	5-4	$4.74	111	$122,511	$14,701	1. Liberty Rising 2. Tomschickenfingers 3. Alzero
111 Day Spell
6th of 10	23/8/25	Saratoga	1207m	MDN 3U	6	Jose Ortiz	54kg	Fast	1:09.61	62.4 km/h	9.6L	10-6	$8.80	27	$139,535	$837	1. Long Pour 2. Merica's Back 3. Speightful Storm
4th of 10	27/7/25	Saratoga	1408m	MDN 3U	8	Jose Ortiz	54kg	SP	1:24.73	59.8 km/h	4.0L	5-2	$8.40	43	$137,615	$8,257	1. Crescendo's Rein 2. Solo Jim 3. Keepinitreal
43 Day Freshen-Up
2nd of 10	14/6/25	Belmont At The Big A	1207m	MDN CLM 3U	10	Katie Davis	53.5kg	SP	1:10.65	61.5 km/h	0.5L	2-2	$5.20	77	$74,650	$14,930	1. Cousin Ed 2. Alzero 3. Prince Of Dance
77 Day Spell
6th of 12	29/3/25	Belmont At The Big A	1308m	MDN 3	6	Katie Davis	54.5kg	Fast	1:18.25	60.2 km/h	10.8L	3-5	$44	36	$117,274	$504	1. Share The Ludt 2. Tiote 3. Motel Patel
36 Day Freshen-Up
6th of 10	21/2/25	Belmont At The Big A	1408m	MDN 3	5	Katie Davis	54.5kg	Fast	1:27.61	57.9 km/h	10.8L	6-6	$29	-	$119,163	$715	1. Mo For The King 2. Grand Cash 3. Tiote

Probability (5) 53x22
Trainer: Amelia J Green(USA)
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Weight: 55.5kg
Prize Money: $65,689
Win / Place: 0% / 75%

4 yo Chestnut Horse

Sire: IMPROBABLE (USA)

Dam: PERAZZI (USA)

Dam's Sire: Curlin

100

Rating

Stats

Career

4: 0-2-1

Track

3: 0-2-1

Season

1: 0-1-0

1st Up

2: 0-1-0

2nd Up

2: 0-1-1

Metro

4: 0-2-1

Dirt

4: 0-2-1

Anti-Clockwise

4: 0-2-1

Jockey Stats

Horse

2: 0-2-0

Trainer

W 0% P 0%

Distance

W 0% P 0%

Track

W 0% P 0%

Trainer/Track

W 0% P 0%

Trainer/Distance

W 0% P 0%

Distance Range Last 6 months

1609m

Comments

Third-up today. Not raced for 49 days. Resuming ran on from midfield; 2nd of 8 at this track on December 5 over 1609m, nose behind Twohonestmischief with 55kg at $2.51. Last start 2nd in a small field at this track on January 9 over 1609m, 0.3 len behind Sequential carrying 55.5kg at $1.25. Capable of a better showing. Respect.

Expected Settling Position: Midfield

Last Starts days since last start

Place	Date	Track	Distance	Class	Barrier	Jockey	Weight	Cond.	Race Time	Avg. Speed	Margin	800/400	SP	Days	Prize	Prize Won	Result
2nd of 5	9/1/26	Belmont At The Big A	1609m	MDN OCLM 4U	3	Manuel Franco	55.5kg	Fast	1:38.21	59.0 km/h	0.3L	1-2	$1.25f	35	$112,108	$22,422	1. Sequential 2. Probability 3. Ice Shot
35 Day Freshen-Up
2nd of 8	5/12/25	Belmont At The Big A	1609m	MDN 3U	5	Manuel Franco	55kg	Fast	1:37.14	59.6 km/h	0.1L	4-1	$2.51f	440	$122,511	$24,502	1. Twohonestmischief 2. Probability 3. Kaz Oil Changer
440 Day Spell
3rd of 11	21/9/24	Belmont At The Big A	1207m	MDN 2	4	K Carmouche	54kg	Fast	1:11.16	61.1 km/h	10.5L	4-3	$3.15f	49	$110,294	$13,235	1. Man In Finance 2. Kenny Be 3. Probability
49 Day Freshen-Up
5th of 10	3/8/24	Saratoga	1207m	MDN 2	3	I Ortiz Jr	54kg	SP	1:11.29	61.0 km/h	13.6L	7-6	$3.65	-	$138,249	$5,530	1. Smilensaycheese 2. The Toner 3. Corvus

Race Review Abbreviations

3WNC: Three wide no cover, Awk: Awkwardly away, Bk: Back, Blkd: Blocked, Btld: Battled, Chal: Challenged, Chkd: Checked, Cvr: Cover, Fdd: Faded, Fght: Fought, Fin: Finish, Hdd: Headed, Hld up: Held up, Hmprd: Hampered, Hndy: Handy, Kikd: Kicked, Kn: Keen, Ld: Led/Lead, Midf: Midfield, Mod pc: Moderate pace, Otf: On the Fence, ROS: Ran on strongly, Slow: Slow away, Snagd: Snagged, Stld: Settled, Tn: Turn, Trld: Trailed, Under pres: Under pressure, Under rd: Under riding, Urgd: Urged, Wd: Wide, Wdr: Wider, Weavd: Weaved, Wknd: Weakened, Wrkd: Worked

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